By David Enna, Tipswatch.com

If you have been reading this site for a long time, you know what this headline means: I will soon be traveling to some distant place with confusing timezone differences and potentially weak-to-zero internet.

It is so far, in fact, that I will depart on Day One and arrive on Day Three after crossing the international dateline. I will entirely miss Valentine’s Day. And I expect the jet lag to be severe. The trip will last more than three weeks and I won’t have a lot of time to follow financial news.

So expect some lag time, especially in approving comments or responding to questions. But I will try to post news when I can, including a preview of this month’s 30-year TIPS auction.

Tuesday, Feb. 13. The January inflation report will be issued at 8:30 am EST. Originally, this wasn’t going to be a schedule problem for me because my departing flight was leaving Tuesday afternoon. Things got shifted around and now I am leaving in the morning, so I won’t be able to post any news or analysis until a layover in Houston.

The forecast for January inflation is 0.2%, according to Barron’s. That is the seasonally adjusted number for all-items inflation, and — if accurate — looks tame enough to keep both the stock and bond markets happy.

I’d expect the non-seasonally adjusted number to come in higher. Last year, for example, official January 2023 inflation was 0.5%, while non-seasonally adjusted rose 0.8%. In January 2022, official inflation rose 0.6%, while non-seasonal was up 0.84%.

Why is this important? Because non-seasonally adjusted inflation will be used to set the new inflation-adjusted variable rate on U.S. Series I Savings Bonds. So far, three months into the 6-month rate-setting period, inflation has been negative, at -0.34%. So January non-seasonal inflation will need to come in at 0.34%, at least, just to get the number to zero.

All of this makes it highly likely that the I Bond in May will get a lower variable rate than the current 3.94%. Possibly much lower. But things can change.

Sunday, Feb. 18. In the morning, I will post a preview article on the 30-year TIPS auction set for Feb. 22. Although I won’t be a buyer (the term is too long for me) this could end up being attractive for the investor who can handle the long maturity date and high volatility.

As of Friday’s market close, the 30-year real yield stood at 2.13%, which I consider attractive. For perspective, here is the trend in the 30-year real yield over the last 14 years. Despite speculation that Treasury yields would plummet in 2024 as the Fed inched toward easing, long-term real yields have remained relatively high.

This chart is a reminder that the “window” for building a comprehensive TIPS ladder is still open. Real yields remain attractive across the maturity spectrum. Could they go higher? Sure. But I’d expect some “token” rate cuts coming from the Fed sometime this year, especially if inflation remains tame.

Thursday, Feb. 22. The 30-year TIPS auction will close at 1 p.m. EDT, which is 7 a.m. Friday in New Zealand. I’ll probably be at breakfast in Auckland and then embark on the day’s activities. I’ll get something posted, eventually. Don’t expect too much.

After that? Something crazy always happens when I travel, so sorry if I cause an international financial crisis. I might not even be aware it is happening. I’ll be back to the U.S. in time for the February inflation report, to be issued March 12.

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David Enna is a financial journalist, not a financial adviser. He is not selling or profiting from any investment discussed. I Bonds and TIPS are not “get rich” investments; they are best used for capital preservation and inflation protection. They can be purchased through the Treasury or other providers without fees, commissions or carrying charges. Please do your own research before investing.