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As the risk-free rate rises, expected returns on equities will be pushed up, and holding all else constant, stock prices will go down., and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop. Ultimately, a government that chooses to default is making a political choice, as much as it is an economic one.
With more mature companies, as investment opportunities become scarcer, at least relative to available capital, the focus not surprisingly shifts to financing mix, with a lower hurdlerate being the pay off.
During 2020, as I watched companies and investors struggle with the after shocks of the economic shut down created by COVID, I wrote a series of fourteen posts (linked below) on what I was learning, unlearning and relearning about corporate finance and valuation. Debt can handcuff even large, established companies & put them at risk.
While the universe of companies is diverse, with approximately half of all firms from emerging markets, it is more concentrated in market capitalization, with the US accounting for 40% of global market capitalization at the start of the year. Data Update 4 for 2021: The HurdleRate Question.
In particular, there are wide variations in how risk is measured, and once measured, across companies and countries, and those variations can lead to differences in expected returns and hurdlerates, central to both corporate finance and investing judgments.
Because the economics of profitability start showing up particularly when you’re starting to hire other advisors and staff and team. ” look at the Monte Carlo simulations, look at what is the hurdlerate. You really have to start crystalizing an org chart and who does what, and clarifying roles and responsibilities.
And economic indicators, like the unemployment rate or the claims data, and you know, we actually did some scenario analysis around that recently, just talking about, Hey, what happens if the employment rate rises versus falls? I mean, I, I haven’t done that much work. I think, I think it’s probably more useful.
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