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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

As has been the case for the past several quarters, the prevailing characteristic of the economy is one of bifurcation, with interest rate-sensitive sectors remaining in a recession (as evidenced by the manufacturing sector's 16-month-long contraction), while the services sector (which accounts for nearly 80% of U.S. GDP) continues to expand.

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Reframing financial uncertainty with data and AI

Future CFO

Moody’s, he noted, is well known for its counterparty credit risk analysis. For example, Oliver Li , treasury manager at Asia Pacific at FMC Corporation , assessed the business value of moving some manufacturing from China to Egypt as the former faced power outages.

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Transcript: Armen Panossian

Barry Ritholtz

So, 00:25:13 [Speaker Changed] So let’s talk about that before we get to private credit. First time in decades, treasuries and investment grade corporates, it’s, it’s an attractive yield at five 5.5%. How has that spread changed now that the floor is five, five point half percent for, for fed rates?

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Transcript: Sean Dobson, Amherst Holdings

Barry Ritholtz

And up until that moment in time, we didn’t spend a lot of time on credit risk in mortgages. We didn’t really have to model credit risk because that was, that risk was taken by the agencies. But in these private labels, you had the, the market was taking the credit risk.

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Transcript: Jeffrey Sherman, DoubleLine

Barry Ritholtz

And what I hear from a lot of people is, and I’ll hear it from the credit team significantly at the firm yield buyer, there’s a yield buyer, there’s a yield buyer, and there’s a threshold of yields. Well, if you only care about yield, just go buy treasuries. You have to get compensated for each risk.

Math 55