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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

After the rating downgrade, my mailbox was inundated with questions of what this action meant for investing, in general, and for corporate finance and valuation practice, in particular, and this post is my attempt to answer them all with one post. and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop.

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Data Update 1 for 2021: A (Data) Look Back at a Most Forgettable Year (2020)!

Musings on Markets

To illustrate, consider a practice in valuation, where analysts are trained to add a small cap premium to discount rates for smaller companies, on the intuition that they are riskier than larger companies. It is very likely that these rules of thumb were developed from data and observation, but at a different point in time.

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Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets

Put simply they look at a long time period in the past (50 years or even 100 years) and look at the premium that stocks earned over a risk free investment (treasury bills or bonds); that historical risk premium then gets used as a measure of the current equity risk premium. Data Update 4 for 2021: The Hurdle Rate Question.

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Transcript: Edward Chancellor

Barry Ritholtz

CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. They’re actually just buying long dollars, treasuries.

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Restructuring Compensation And Roles To Align For Growth

CFO News Room

” look at the Monte Carlo simulations, look at what is the hurdle rate. So, last year, valuations were high, interest rates were low. And I said, “Look, you’ve got to look at where we are with valuations, and you have to look at where the 10-year Treasury is at. Is it at 1.5%?”

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Country Risk: A July 2023 Update!

Musings on Markets

Company Hurdle Rates This post has already become much longer than I intended it to be, but I want to end by bringing these equity risk premiums down to the company level, and examining how they play out in hurdle rates, to be used in investment analysis by companies and valuation by investors.