Musings on Markets

JANUARY 27, 2021

In my last post , I described the wild ride that the price of risk took in 2020, with equity risk premiums and default spreads initially sky rocketing, as the virus led to global economic shutdowns, and then just as abruptly dropping back to pre-crisis levels over the course of the year. Currencies : A currency serves three functions.

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Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

I was reminded of that paper a few weeks ago, when Fitch downgraded the US, from AAA to AA+, a relatively minor shift, but one with significant psychological consequences for investors in the largest economy in the world, whose currency still dominates global transactions. and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

First, all value numbers (like market capitalization, debt or revenues) that I aggregate or average will be converted into US dollars to ensure currency consistency. First, all value numbers (like market capitalization, debt or revenues) that I aggregate or average will be converted into US dollars to ensure currency consistency.

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Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

Thus, if a 10-year corporate bond has a yield of 3.00% and a 10-year government bond, in the same currency and with no default risk, has a yield of 1.00%, the difference is termed the default spread and becomes a measure of the price of risk in the bond market. If you buy into this measure of equity risk premiums, consider its limitations.

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Barry Ritholtz

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

CHANCELLOR: And I actually — one of my last projects at GMO was to do a sort of — to look at what was going on from economic sentiment perspective, looking at various different measures in a bull bear ratio, amount of margin loans in system. They’re actually just buying long dollars, treasuries. back in sort of 2012.

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Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

One is curiosity , as political and economic crises roll through regions of the world, roiling long-held beliefs about safe and risky countries. S&P, Moody's and Fitch, in addition to rating companies for default risk, also rate governments, and they rate them both on local currency debt, as well as foreign currency debt.

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Barry Ritholtz

DECEMBER 26, 2023

And economic indicators, like the unemployment rate or the claims data, and you know, we actually did some scenario analysis around that recently, just talking about, Hey, what happens if the employment rate rises versus falls? You, you mentioned the fed raising rates. I mean, I, I haven’t done that much work.

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