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Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

CFO News Room

In my last point on inflation, I noted that a currency with higher inflation can be expected to depreciate over time against a currency with lower inflation. That expected devaluation in the high-inflation currency is not risk, though, since it can and should be incorporated into your forecasts.

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Data Update 4 for 2022: Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

Musings on Markets

In my last point on inflation, I noted that a currency with higher inflation can be expected to depreciate over time against a currency with lower inflation. That expected devaluation in the high-inflation currency is not risk, though, since it can and should be incorporated into your forecasts.

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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

I was reminded of that paper a few weeks ago, when Fitch downgraded the US, from AAA to AA+, a relatively minor shift, but one with significant psychological consequences for investors in the largest economy in the world, whose currency still dominates global transactions. and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop.

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Data Update 1 for 2021: A (Data) Look Back at a Most Forgettable Year (2020)!

Musings on Markets

To illustrate, consider a practice in valuation, where analysts are trained to add a small cap premium to discount rates for smaller companies, on the intuition that they are riskier than larger companies. It is true that the Turkish company will face more risk because of its location, but that is an issue separate from currency.

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Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets

Thus, if a 10-year corporate bond has a yield of 3.00% and a 10-year government bond, in the same currency and with no default risk, has a yield of 1.00%, the difference is termed the default spread and becomes a measure of the price of risk in the bond market. Data Update 3 for 2021: Currencies, Commodities, Collectibles and Cryptos!

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Transcript: Savita Subramanian

Barry Ritholtz

When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is gonna happen. So, so given this, how do you draw a price target or a market forecast from, here’s the average of all the Wall Street strategists, let’s say it’s plus 8%. 00:29:32 [Speaker Changed] Certainly for commodities and for currencies.

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