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Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. We evolved in an arithmetic world, so we are unprepared for the exponential math of finance. Primarily Treasuries, investment-grade corporates, munis, and TIPs. Bad Numbers : 4.
TIPS have suddenly moved to center stage for investors, as the surge in inflation has drawn new interest in Treasury inflation-protected securities. Rising interest rates can hit their valuation. This has already happened in the past three months; rates on 10-year Treasury notes have risen to 1.930% from 1.431% in early November.
My advice was not based on fear of a bubble or the (over)valuation of Yahoo; rather, I suggested employing a regret minimization framework.2 These two possibilities a 10-fold increase versus a 90% drop are roughly symmetrical in terms of math (but probably not probabilities). Torn about what to do, he asked my opinion.
As a result, the ‘traditional’ valuation of an advisory firm wasn’t really 2X revenue; it was 6-8X profits, and when advisory firms can run 25% to 30% profit margins, 7X profits at 28% margins came out to almost exactly 2X revenue. (In When it comes to technology firms, revenue valuation multiples are often much higher.
So you go back a couple of years and you could say, “Well, what return is available buying a treasury?” ” And it turned out, if you looked at the market at that time, it was, I’ll call it 1%, five-year treasury or 10-year treasury. What’s the valuation? We are deposits cost less than that.
I took a lot of math classes. I couldn’t give up math in computer science. So of course, what the Fed will do impacts markets, impacts valuations, impacts interest rates. So that, 00:39:33 [Speaker Changed] Well, 2022 was pretty much a down 15% year for treasuries and down 20 plus for equities. at Wellesley.
DAVIS: Where international equities, because of valuations, probably 7% to 7.5%. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that, because that gap in valuation has persisted for a long time. How durable is that shift, given how large that gap has gotten in valuation between US stocks and the rest of the developed world?
You do the math and you’re like, “Okay, well, an advisor can handle about 100 clients, an associate advisor can help with some of those clients, you can leverage maybe an associate advisor with a couple of advisors, but there’s a capacity limit for each of the roles.” And so, we pivoted to more of a service team.
So I, I did a math degree at Oxford, which is more pure math. You know, pure math can be very theoretical and detached from the real world, and it’s getting worse. It’s just math stick to it over long periods of time. Then the volatility and, and the valuation makes an enormous difference.
I’m good at math and science and you know, I always had an idea what go into business, but I felt that electrical engineering would be a good foundation. You know, I, it always, I I see different numbers all the time, so it’s always kinda like, who’s math if you will? 00:02:16 [Speaker Changed] Me too.
And I was a math nerd as a kid. He developed the Ginnie Mae contract, which at one time was a big thing in treasury bond contract. 00:44:11 [Speaker Changed] Kathy would may have her own valuation, so, but I can’t replicate it myself. And the value line has all these statistical patterns.
But since you mentioned getting return on the risk you take, how do you think about duration when the three-month Treasury is more or less the same or better than the 10-year? Now, we’re shifting to more international places like China, Europe, et cetera, that are really growing, and that valuations are cheaper. RIEDER: Yeah.
We participated in that with treasury and FHFA and the regulators, the White House. And we’ve automated the, the appraisal process for valuation, both intrinsic value, meaning like, where would we pay it, where would we buy it, and where is the fair market price that asset from that level, from price and from consumer behavior now.
00:31:40 [Speaker Changed] So there’s the emotions and then there’s the math, right? I, you know, I, I do do the math when I, when I do some of my, my chats with the younger folks on the, on the team and I say, okay, real growth inflation term premium, you see this thing, it’s been zero or negative for the last 15 years.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. And I just caught the bug. Become options market makers. You learn the technology.
Literally the first check-in to Robinhood, which went public in 2021 at about a $34 billion valuation. RITHOLTZ: He was the first (inaudible) in round B at the higher valuation. Is it about the valuation? Back then I was Wallstrip was like a 400K valuation. RITHOLTZ: Valuation didn’t make much of a difference.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
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