Remove Benchmarking Remove Forecasting Remove Math
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Q&A: Your Money Map

Barry Ritholtz

This is more than overconfidence, the DKE is how poorly we are at metacognition assessing our own abilities at a specific task Look at the history of performance and the small number of professional investors who outperform their benchmarks over 1, 5, 10, and 20 years. What are some examples of bad numbers?

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Transcript: Sander Gerber, CEO and CIO Hudson Bay Capital

Barry Ritholtz

Sander Gerber : Well, actually I was good at math. Because if you don’t include every single data point, then in the matrix math you have a divide by zero issue. 00:47:06 [Speaker Changed] I know you guys don’t release public performance numbers, but I know you are doing much better than your benchmark this quarter.

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Transcript: Tom Hancock, GMO

Barry Ritholtz

Its index and its benchmark. I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. GMO is kind of famous for doing seven year forecasts, right? Learn math, learn history. a year, way over both.

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Transcript: Kristen Bitterly Michell

Barry Ritholtz

I — I loved math, but really, I was going to go down that literature route more than anything else and — and study Spanish literature. And I — I — I don’t like to ask people for predictions and forecasts, but you’re looking at the flows and you get client questions all the time. I was econ and kind of geeky.

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Transcript: Greg Davis, CIO Vanguard

Barry Ritholtz

They create the benchmark. So when there’s a major turnover like that that happens, you always have the option, “Hey, can you do it exactly on the time that it enters the benchmark? And 87% of our active fixed income funds have outperformed their benchmarks on a three year basis against their benchmarks.

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Transcript: Dave Nadig

Barry Ritholtz

It seems like an easy one, but there’s a lot of missed benchmarking that goes on. We’re going to make a benchmark much easier. So as much as I’m personally still a pretty strong skeptic of active management, I mean, I understand the math, and the odds are not in your favor. It’s how math works.

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Transcript: Rick Rieder

Barry Ritholtz

And because remember, Lehman had the Lehman Agg and that was the benchmark. There is above benchmark returns to be generated by active selection of credit quality duration and specific bonds. How are we doing in literacy versus math versus science? There is alpha. Can you manage that through downturns? RITHOLTZ: Right.