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Error Metrics: How to Evaluate Your Forecasts

Jedox Finance

When considering the performance of any forecasting model, the prediction values it produces must be evaluated. An error metric is a way to quantify the performance of a model and provides a way for the forecaster to quantitatively compare different models 1. Where y’ is forecasted value and y is the true value.

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10 Bad Takes On This Market

Barry Ritholtz

How bad at math do you need to be to think that it’s only 5 stocks driving this market? But people have been forecasting an imminent recession for 18 months — and we still have yet to have one. Earnings will fail THIS Q Earnings forecasts are hilariously wrong most of the time, as are revenue forecasts… 8.

Marketing 111
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The “Art” of Market Timing

Barry Ritholtz

October 22, 2012) Investing via Media Market Timing (February 8, 2009) Forecasting & Prediction Discussions Sources : We Found 30 Timing Strategies that “Worked”—and 690 that Didn’t By Wei Dai, PhD, Audrey Dong, DFA, Oct 31, 2023 In the Stock Market, Don’t Buy and Sell. By Jeff Sommer New York Times, Nov. More on this later.

Marketing 117
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The December Doldrums: Retail Forecast Between Thanksgiving And Christmas

PYMNTS

But simple math shows that the season’s big shopping days still only add up to less than 30 percent of holiday spending, leaving the remaining 70 percent to spread out over the four weeks between Thanksgiving and Christmas. That’s one way to look at it.

Retail 40
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10 Wednesday AM Reads

Barry Ritholtz

Forecasting models that combine several measures of local shelter and rent inflation can help explain how recent trends might affect the path of future shelter inflation. Shelter inflation has remained high even as other components of inflation have fallen. ” ( Gizmodo ) • Is it cheaper to refuel your EV battery or gas tank?

Math 52
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Did Amazon’s Market Share Drop To 37%?

PYMNTS

An eMarketer spokesperson further confirmed with Bloomberg that the company based its updated forecast entirely on the disclosure in Bezos’s shareholder letter, and not from any additional or exclusive information from Amazon. And that, as it turns out, is really a matter of how one does the math. eMarketer has done its math.

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Negotiation for Physicians

Adam Kae

Models, Forecasts, Calculations, Oh My! You'll need to do some math to understand: where your breakeven is. Then, it's best to do some modeling and forecast the different acceptable scenarios based on your negotiations. It's more than a big smile and a "salesman" technique or two. Your Negotiation Strategy.

Math 52