Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

The biggest winner, and this should come as no surprise, has been technology, with a return of 43% in 2023, and almost entirely recovering its losses in 2022. If you have concerns on those fronts, your investing should reflect those worries, but your returns will be only as good as your macro forecasting abilities.

Marketing 95

Marketing Treasury Currencies Valuation 95

Musings on Markets

OCTOBER 4, 2021

The last is the operating margin , it operating income (or loss) as a percent of operating income each year. Second, this is a company that seems to run on hyperbolic forecasts from its founders and top management , that are not just consistently higher than what the company deliver, but often by a factor of three or four.

Valuation 72

Valuation Profit and Loss Investments Numbers 72

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

If you do assume that markets will price away this excess profit, you then have the basis for the models that are used to value options and other derivative assets. That is why the risk-free rate becomes an input into option pricing and forward pricing models , and its absence leaves a vacuum.

Investments 80

Investments Currencies Treasury Hurdle Rate 80

Barry Ritholtz

SEPTEMBER 12, 2022

And so, while you can see that concentration in markets, and sales, and trading, once I started really working with our private bank in a meaningful way, I was then able to lead teams of investment counselors and investors. It’s late in the summer in 2022, markets sold off 22, 24 percent, recovered about half of those losses ….

Investments 114

Investments Marketing Profit and Loss Banking 114

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 16, 2022

And so, you know, it was relatively, I wouldn’t say straightforward because I don’t think generating consistent profits has ever been something that’s so straightforward or so easy. And it’s always going to expect to lose some of those profits when the trend reverses, but still end up capturing the meat of the trend.

Profit and Loss 117

Profit and Loss Foreign Exchange Valuation Investments 117

Barry Ritholtz

FEBRUARY 20, 2024

And so you had a situation where you could take big positions in the euro dollar market, affect the price and the cash market and actually make a profit. But those forecasts are, you know, not particularly reliable. The Atlanta Fed GDP now forecast for the first quarter is over 4%. You have a big repo market.

Treasury 56

Treasury Marketing Economics Banking 56

Barry Ritholtz

JULY 31, 2023

And most people think of Bill, his bread and butter business is activist, very concentrated stock investing, but he has a bit of a background in macro too, back from ’07, ’08, and he actually decides to do this in the credit markets, where spreads are incredibly tight. .” Okay, how do I express it? RITHOLTZ: Happens.

Treasury 52

Treasury Economics Retail Entertainment 52

Barry Ritholtz

APRIL 11, 2023

They had the access to loss and excel really. And I think that’s a loss. I create these concentric circles for people who have time and say, if you have this much time, try these extra things. RITHOLTZ: You would have to put some flesh on those bones, some numbers, to determine is it still profitable to do this or not?

Valuation 114

Valuation Education Finance Investments 114