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Top 2024 macro-credit risks

Future CFO

Top 2024 macro-credit risks include tight liquidity and funding conditions, uncertainty about China’s macroeconomic outlook and property sector, and geopolitical event risk, said Fitch Ratin gs recently. The post Top 2024 macro-credit risks appeared first on FutureCFO.

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Core inflation, rising rates remain main credit risks

Future CFO

When it comes to the main credit risks, inflation and interest rates remain the most significant watch item for global credit, said Fitch Ratings recently. According to Fitch’s base-case forecasts, this will include a shallow recession in the US, limited growth in the eurozone and building risks to China’s recovery.

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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

Notably, the work-from-home movement has resulted in a dramatic drop in office valuations that could lead to a whole host of issues, including lending constraints in the banking sector, which is already sitting on a mountain of unrealized losses on Treasuries and mortgages.

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Transcript: David Snyderman, Magnetar Capital

Barry Ritholtz

David Snyderman has put together an incredible career in fixed income, alternative credit, and really just an amazing way of looking at risk and trade structure and how to figure out probabilistic potential outcomes rather than playing the usual forecasting and macro tourist game. They have an incredible track record.

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Transcript: Greg Davis, CIO Vanguard

Barry Ritholtz

And you had to take on significant duration risk and credit risk just to earn a couple percentage points. DAVIS: Where international equities, because of valuations, probably 7% to 7.5%. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that, because that gap in valuation has persisted for a long time. RITHOLTZ: Right.

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Transcript: Rick Rieder

Barry Ritholtz

But there are so many tools at your disposal, and let alone how much duration you’re taking, how much interest, how much credit risk you’re taking, illiquidity, et cetera. And how do you make the decision, I’m not comfortable with this credit risk relative to the return it’s going to throw off?

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Transcript: Armen Panossian

Barry Ritholtz

When you look at this present environment, do you think of yourselves more as bottom up credit pickers or, or do you look at the macro environment and say, Hey, we have to figure out what’s going on there? Also, 00:36:15 [Speaker Changed] You know, we’re bottoms up credit pickers. 00:37:26 [Speaker Changed] Huh.