Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

As the world's attention is focused on the war in the Ukraine, it is the human toll, in death and injury, that should get our immediate attention, and you may find a focus on economics and markets to be callous. Ukraine, a part of the Soviet Union, has had its shares of ups and downs, and its economic footprint is even smaller.

Economics 100

Economics Valuation Treasury Forecasting 100

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

Inflation: The Full Story I wrote my first post on this blog in 2008, and inflation merited barely a mention until 2020, though it is an integral component of investing and valuation.

Treasury 92

Treasury Economics Investments Marketing 92

Musings on Markets

JULY 13, 2022

Country Risk: Currency and Cost of Capital As a final part to this post, to see the shifts in country risk that we have seen in 2022, let’s start with an assessment of risk free rates. That increase in interest rates is not restricted to the US dollar, as local currency government bond rates have risen around the world.

Currencies 81

Currencies Economics Valuation Treasury 81

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 8, 2022

After all, we get our restaurant choices from Yelp reviews, our movie recommendations from Rotten Tomatoes, and we have even built crypto currencies around the notion of crowd-checking transactions. Rather than replicate that data, my macroeconomic datasets relate to four key variables that I use in corporate finance and valuation.

Valuation 91

Valuation Corporate Finance Currencies Finance 91

Future CFO

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

Delving into the key trends shaping the treasury landscape in 2024, the focus is on themes such as staffing challenges, macroeconomic risks, technology adoption, and strategic financial management. The post Navigating treasury trends in 2024: challenges, strategies, and the role of technology appeared first on FutureCFO.

Treasury 105

Treasury Technology Cash Flow Forecasting Leverage 105

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

To illustrate, consider a practice in valuation, where analysts are trained to add a small cap premium to discount rates for smaller companies, on the intuition that they are riskier than larger companies. It is true that the Turkish company will face more risk because of its location, but that is an issue separate from currency.

Valuation 52

Valuation Currencies Numbers Corporate Finance 52

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

I was reminded of that paper a few weeks ago, when Fitch downgraded the US, from AAA to AA+, a relatively minor shift, but one with significant psychological consequences for investors in the largest economy in the world, whose currency still dominates global transactions. For an investment to be risk free then, it has to meet two conditions.

Investments 80

Investments Currencies Treasury Hurdle Rate 80

CFA Institute

DECEMBER 5, 2018

“Most people tell me that long-run equity valuation data is meaningless," says Russell Napier. "I I think they’re wrong.”.

Marketing 52

Marketing Valuation Treasury Currencies 52

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

In my third post at the start of 2023, I looked at US treasuries, the long-touted haven of safety for investors. In 2022, they were in the eye on the storm, with the ten-year US treasury bond depreciating in price by more than 19% during the year, the worst year for US treasury returns in a century.

Marketing 95

Marketing Treasury Currencies Valuation 95

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

Thus, if a 10-year corporate bond has a yield of 3.00% and a 10-year government bond, in the same currency and with no default risk, has a yield of 1.00%, the difference is termed the default spread and becomes a measure of the price of risk in the bond market. If you buy into this measure of equity risk premiums, consider its limitations.

Treasury 52

Treasury Investments Valuation Hurdle Rate 52

Barry Ritholtz

OCTOBER 17, 2023

A degree in mathematics from Oxford, a doctorate in mathematical epidemiology and economics from Cambridge. And you do a lot of work with infinity [Barry Ritholtz] : 00:03:29 [Speaker Changed] And then economics, which is a little bit squishier. What made you add economics to your, to your graduate degree? What is that?

Investments 52

Investments Valuation Math Numbers 52

Barry Ritholtz

NOVEMBER 8, 2022

CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. CHANCELLOR: And look — yeah, but then if you look at the valuation of the market at that time, the market was — the U.S. They’re actually just buying long dollars, treasuries.

Valuation 56

Valuation Finance Investments Banking 56

Barry Ritholtz

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

But since you mentioned getting return on the risk you take, how do you think about duration when the three-month Treasury is more or less the same or better than the 10-year? Now, we’re shifting to more international places like China, Europe, et cetera, that are really growing, and that valuations are cheaper. RIEDER: Yeah.

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) 56

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Investments Marketing Education 56

Musings on Markets

JULY 25, 2023

One is curiosity , as political and economic crises roll through regions of the world, roiling long-held beliefs about safe and risky countries. S&P, Moody's and Fitch, in addition to rating companies for default risk, also rate governments, and they rate them both on local currency debt, as well as foreign currency debt.

Hurdle Rate 52

Hurdle Rate Currencies Valuation Marketing 52

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 16, 2022

If you’re all interested in macro investing, trend following, commodities, currencies, fixed income, various types of quantitative strategies, and most important of all, risk management, you’re going to find this conversation to be absolutely fascinating. RITHOLTZ: And those were Treasuries. TROPIN: Right. TROPIN: Yeah.

Profit and Loss 117

Profit and Loss Foreign Exchange Valuation Investments 117

Barry Ritholtz

DECEMBER 20, 2022

It’s just a fascinating conversation about looking at the world from both bottoms up and top-down, as well as thinking about what valuations are like, how likely are macro events, the impact you’re getting not just the return on capital, but as famously said in fixed income, a return of your capital. Treasury, the OFAC restrictions.

Restructuring 60

Restructuring Investments Marketing Banking 60

Barry Ritholtz

NOVEMBER 7, 2023

This, this is true with every pump and up scheme, every pyramid scheme, and it, it comes out in some of the court documents later that in, in some of the corporate Slack accounts, one, one of the people say they should be the director of Ponzi economics. Put it in Riskless Treasuries. A closed shop that was a currency exchange.

Numbers 60

Numbers Profit and Loss Banking Finance 60