Musings on Markets

MARCH 19, 2022

As the world's attention is focused on the war in the Ukraine, it is the human toll, in death and injury, that should get our immediate attention, and you may find a focus on economics and markets to be callous. Ukraine, a part of the Soviet Union, has had its shares of ups and downs, and its economic footprint is even smaller.

Economics 100

Economics Valuation Treasury Forecasting 100

Musings on Markets

MAY 6, 2022

Inflation: The Full Story I wrote my first post on this blog in 2008, and inflation merited barely a mention until 2020, though it is an integral component of investing and valuation.

Treasury 92

Treasury Economics Investments Marketing 92

Musings on Markets

SEPTEMBER 27, 2022

There is a market-based estimate of inflation that comes from the US treasury market, where a comparison of yields on a treasury bond with that on a inflation-protected treasury bond of equivalent maturity provides a measure of expected inflation.

Treasury 74

Treasury Valuation Currencies Forecasting 74

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 19, 2022

In a post at the start of 2021 , I argued that while stocks entered the year at elevated levels, especially on historic metrics (such as PE ratios), they were priced to deliver reasonable returns, relative to very low risk free rates (with the treasury bond rate at 0.93% at the start of 2021). The year that was.

Valuation 80

Valuation Treasury Marketing Investments 80

Simply Treasury

FEBRUARY 24, 2020

Think of the automakers and Tesla's recent valuation that reflects these profound changes. Central banks want to incorporate climate risks into all their forecasts. World Economic Forum) show that this risk is on the scale of major risks estimated by CEOs. An economic crisis may not affect the climate or kill people.

Banking 130

Banking Economics Valuation Treasury 130

E78 Partners

APRIL 13, 2023

Preqin , the leading trusted industry data provider, forecasts that global private capital assets under management (AUM) will reach a staggering $18.3 This trend was made possible by the staggering amounts of capital available in private markets during an era of lower interest rates and surging valuations.

Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) 52

Financial Planning and Analysis (FP&A) Leadership Forecasting CFO 52

Future CFO

APRIL 13, 2023

The three years since 2020 saw organisations focus on digitalisation, payment efficiency, security, and cash forecasting. Amid the continuing uncertainties, including socio-economic and geo-political disagreements, businesses remain constant in their one agenda for 2023 – growth. As a CFO, what is top of your mind in 2023?

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) 52

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Communication CFO Leadership 52

Future CFO

FEBRUARY 7, 2024

Delving into the key trends shaping the treasury landscape in 2024, the focus is on themes such as staffing challenges, macroeconomic risks, technology adoption, and strategic financial management. Staffing challenges and technology adoption Staffing emerges as a central theme for corporate treasurers.

Treasury 105

Treasury Technology Cash Flow Forecasting Leverage 105

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 5, 2023

I will try to steer away from models and economic jargon in this section, simply because they do little to advance understanding and much to muddy the waters. Relative to treasury bills, stocks delivered a negative risk premium in 2022 (-20%), but it would be nonsensical to extrapolate from a single year of data. What is it?

Treasury 78

Treasury Valuation Investments Corporate Finance 78

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

To illustrate, consider a practice in valuation, where analysts are trained to add a small cap premium to discount rates for smaller companies, on the intuition that they are riskier than larger companies. It is very likely that these rules of thumb were developed from data and observation, but at a different point in time.

Valuation 52

Valuation Currencies Numbers Corporate Finance 52

CFO News Room

JANUARY 22, 2023

While there are many events during 2022, some political and some economic, that one can point to as the reason for poor stock returns, it is undeniable that inflation was the driving force behind the market correction.

Forecasting 130

Forecasting Treasury Investments Economics 130

Musings on Markets

JULY 17, 2023

In my third post at the start of 2023, I looked at US treasuries, the long-touted haven of safety for investors. In 2022, they were in the eye on the storm, with the ten-year US treasury bond depreciating in price by more than 19% during the year, the worst year for US treasury returns in a century.

Marketing 95

Marketing Treasury Currencies Valuation 95

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

After the rating downgrade, my mailbox was inundated with questions of what this action meant for investing, in general, and for corporate finance and valuation practice, in particular, and this post is my attempt to answer them all with one post. For an investment to be risk free then, it has to meet two conditions.

Investments 80

Investments Currencies Treasury Hurdle Rate 80

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 21, 2023

While there are many events during 2022, some political and some economic, that one can point to as the reason for poor stock returns, it is undeniable that inflation was the driving force behind the market correction. Stocks: The So What? Stocks: The What Next?

Valuation 70

Valuation Treasury Investments Forecasting 70

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 29, 2023

So a variety of risk meetings, a variety of economic meetings. DAVIS: Where international equities, because of valuations, probably 7% to 7.5%. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that, because that gap in valuation has persisted for a long time. Tell us a little bit about what you as CIO do on the bond side. RITHOLTZ: Right.

Investments 52

Investments Benchmarking Valuation Construction 52

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 20, 2021

Put simply they look at a long time period in the past (50 years or even 100 years) and look at the premium that stocks earned over a risk free investment (treasury bills or bonds); that historical risk premium then gets used as a measure of the current equity risk premium.

Treasury 52

Treasury Investments Valuation Hurdle Rate 52

Musings on Markets

MAY 11, 2021

Encourage savings/ capital formation : In an economy, where private capital is behind the bulk of economic investment and growth, governments are dependent up the health of capital markets (stocks and bonds) for continued growth.

Investments 52

Investments Valuation Treasury Forecasting 52

Barry Ritholtz

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

So you have almost a doubling of the interest coupon paid by some of these businesses against the backdrop of c ovid 19 inflation and some of the economic pressures that come with, with those factors. First time in decades, treasuries and investment grade corporates, it’s, it’s an attractive yield at five 5.5%.

Investments 52

Investments Economics Banking Construction 52

Barry Ritholtz

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

But since you mentioned getting return on the risk you take, how do you think about duration when the three-month Treasury is more or less the same or better than the 10-year? Now, we’re shifting to more international places like China, Europe, et cetera, that are really growing, and that valuations are cheaper. RIEDER: Yeah.

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) 57

Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Investments Marketing Education 57

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 16, 2022

RITHOLTZ: And those were Treasuries. Well, I’m not forecasting another 20% down, but I do think we could go down 5% or 10%. How do you contextualize the economic data and the broad stamp recession when you’re thinking about managing risk? How does this impact global trade and other economic factors?

Profit and Loss 118

Profit and Loss Foreign Exchange Valuation Investments 118

Barry Ritholtz

MARCH 12, 2024

We participated in that with treasury and FHFA and the regulators, the White House. And we’ve automated the, the appraisal process for valuation, both intrinsic value, meaning like, where would we pay it, where would we buy it, and where is the fair market price that asset from that level, from price and from consumer behavior now.

Profit and Loss 57

Profit and Loss Investments Marketing Securities 57

Barry Ritholtz

FEBRUARY 20, 2024

You get an economics PhD from California, Berkeley in 82, and around the same time you become an economist at the Federal Reserve Board from 81 to 83. When you write a check, you get check float, it takes time for the checks to come back to the hit the treasury account. Let, let’s talk a little bit about your background.

Treasury 57

Treasury Marketing Economics Banking 57