Musings on Markets

AUGUST 15, 2023

As the risk-free rate rises, expected returns on equities will be pushed up, and holding all else constant, stock prices will go down., and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop. That is why the risk-free rate becomes an input into option pricing and forward pricing models , and its absence leaves a vacuum.

Investments 98

Investments Currencies Treasury Hurdle Rate 98

Musings on Markets

FEBRUARY 15, 2023

During the course of the year, investors also rediscovered that the essence of business is not growing revenues or adding users, but making profits from that growth. In this post, I will focus on trend lines in profitability at companies in 2022, with the intent of addressing multiple questions.

Profit and Loss 52

Profit and Loss Investments Hurdle Rate Accounting 52

Musings on Markets

AUGUST 19, 2024

Not surprisingly, the operating metrics change as companies age, with high revenue growth accompanied by big losses (from work-in-progress business models) and large reinvestment needs (to delivery future growth) in early-stage companies to large profits and free cash flows in the mature phase to stresses on growth and margins in decline.

Corporate Finance 123

Corporate Finance Valuation Investments Finance 123

Musings on Markets

JANUARY 9, 2021

That said, it does mean that any broad conclusions (about profitability and revenues) that emerge from my data apply to public companies, and it may be dangerous to extrapolate to private businesses, especially in a year like 2020 where private businesses could have been affected more adversely by COVID shutdowns than public companies.

Valuation 52

Valuation Currencies Numbers Marketing 52

Musings on Markets

MARCH 8, 2023

In the second, Warren Buffet used some heated language to describe those who opposed buybacks, calling them “economic illiterates” and “silver tongued demagogues “. As growth moderates and profitability improves, free cash flows to equity will turn positive, giving these firms the capacity to return cash.

Hurdle Rate 102

Hurdle Rate Corporate Finance Investments Finance 102

Barry Ritholtz

NOVEMBER 25, 2024

There’s very few, I would argue probably no consistent predictors of, of any sort of economic or market cyclicality. So you’ve got, you’ve got a modeling hurdle rate that you need to figure out when you’re adding diversifiers. I think ity economics would argue you have to protect your capital to survive.

Leverage 59

Leverage Investments Marketing Math 59