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1st Quarter 2024 Economic And Market Outlook: Potential Increased Volatility, Threats To Economic Growth, And Equity Markets

Nerd's Eye View

As has been the case for the past several quarters, the prevailing characteristic of the economy is one of bifurcation, with interest rate-sensitive sectors remaining in a recession (as evidenced by the manufacturing sector's 16-month-long contraction), while the services sector (which accounts for nearly 80% of U.S. GDP) continues to expand.

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Payment behaviours likely to deteriorate in 2023 

Future CFO

Allianz Trade forecasts that global WCR to remain broadly stable. Indeed, in a context of slowing economic activity, oversupply in manufacturing sectors and tightening financial conditions, inventories are likely to decrease while payment delays should increase as in previous economic downturns. In 2023, more of the same.

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Trade Credit Insurance

Finvisage

Although quantitative facts and figures have provided objective numerical forecasts, we have also adjusted those expectations using experience and insight (judgement) to improve upon those forecasts. These figures suggest the high credit risk exposure of UK in a global perspective. in September 2019, down from 50.6

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Unlocking the secrets of becoming investment ready

Creative CFP

A complete financial risk assessment consists of a thorough analysis of financial statement data and notes, financial ratios, cash flow and projections. This is key in determining the overall credit risk profile of a business and is more than just whether you can borrow or how much you can borrow.

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Reframing financial uncertainty with data and AI

Future CFO

Moody’s, he noted, is well known for its counterparty credit risk analysis. For example, Oliver Li , treasury manager at Asia Pacific at FMC Corporation , assessed the business value of moving some manufacturing from China to Egypt as the former faced power outages. He called for faster forecast scenarios.

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Transcript: Armen Panossian

Barry Ritholtz

When you look at this present environment, do you think of yourselves more as bottom up credit pickers or, or do you look at the macro environment and say, Hey, we have to figure out what’s going on there? Also, 00:36:15 [Speaker Changed] You know, we’re bottoms up credit pickers. 00:37:26 [Speaker Changed] Huh.

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Transcript: Sean Dobson, Amherst Holdings

Barry Ritholtz

And up until that moment in time, we didn’t spend a lot of time on credit risk in mortgages. We didn’t really have to model credit risk because that was, that risk was taken by the agencies. But in these private labels, you had the, the market was taking the credit risk.