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Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

CFO News Room

That expected devaluation in the high-inflation currency is not risk, though, since it can and should be incorporated into your forecasts. If a firm is badly managed, and you expect it to remain badly managed, you can and should build in that expectation into your forecasts of that company’s earnings and value.

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Data Update 4 for 2022: Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

Musings on Markets

That expected devaluation in the high-inflation currency is not risk, though, since it can and should be incorporated into your forecasts. If a firm is badly managed, and you expect it to remain badly managed, you can and should build in that expectation into your forecasts of that company's earnings and value.

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Data Update 6 for 2023: A Wake up call for the Indebted?

Musings on Markets

Furthermore, do they optimize they debt ratios to deliver the lowest hurdle rates. In the late 1990s, it was an economic recession that was the precipitating factor, but the last three increases in delinquencies have had their origins in other forces. Do companies optimize financing mix?

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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

As the risk-free rate rises, expected returns on equities will be pushed up, and holding all else constant, stock prices will go down., and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop. Ultimately, a government that chooses to default is making a political choice, as much as it is an economic one.

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Data Update 1 for 2021: A (Data) Look Back at a Most Forgettable Year (2020)!

Musings on Markets

The second is that there are great (and free) sources for macro economic data, ranging from the Federal Reserve (FRED) to the World Bank and I don’t see the point of replicating something that they already do well. Data Update 4 for 2021: The Hurdle Rate Question. Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!

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Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets

With an index like the S&P 500, you can outsource these estimates at least for the near years, by looking at consensus forecasts from analysts tracking the index. Risk free rates over time : While it is generally not a good idea to play interest rate forecaster, we are in unusual times, with rates close to all time lows.

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Transcript: Stephen Suttmeier

Barry Ritholtz

And economic indicators, like the unemployment rate or the claims data, and you know, we actually did some scenario analysis around that recently, just talking about, Hey, what happens if the employment rate rises versus falls? I mean, I, I haven’t done that much work. I think, I think it’s probably more useful.