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Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

CFO News Room

That expected devaluation in the high-inflation currency is not risk, though, since it can and should be incorporated into your forecasts. If a firm is badly managed, and you expect it to remain badly managed, you can and should build in that expectation into your forecasts of that company’s earnings and value.

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Data Update 4 for 2022: Risk = Danger + Opportunity!

Musings on Markets

That expected devaluation in the high-inflation currency is not risk, though, since it can and should be incorporated into your forecasts. If a firm is badly managed, and you expect it to remain badly managed, you can and should build in that expectation into your forecasts of that company's earnings and value.

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In Search of Safe Havens: The Trust Deficit and Risk-free Investments!

Musings on Markets

As the risk-free rate rises, expected returns on equities will be pushed up, and holding all else constant, stock prices will go down., and the reverse will occur, when risk-free rates drop.

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Data Update 6 for 2023: A Wake up call for the Indebted?

Musings on Markets

Furthermore, do they optimize they debt ratios to deliver the lowest hurdle rates. Looking ahead to 2023, ratings agencies are forecasting rising default rates, perhaps because they see an economic slowdown coming. Do companies optimize financing mix?

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Data Update 1 for 2021: A (Data) Look Back at a Most Forgettable Year (2020)!

Musings on Markets

I also report estimates of the default spreads based upon current yields on bonds in different ratings classes and the current riskfree rate. Data Update 4 for 2021: The Hurdle Rate Question. Micro Data The focus of my data collection is understanding how companies are operating and how investors are pricing them.

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Data Update 2 for 2021: The Price of Risk!

Musings on Markets

With an index like the S&P 500, you can outsource these estimates at least for the near years, by looking at consensus forecasts from analysts tracking the index. Risk free rates over time : While it is generally not a good idea to play interest rate forecaster, we are in unusual times, with rates close to all time lows.

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Transcript: Stephen Suttmeier

Barry Ritholtz

So, so here’s, here’s the why I, I’m looking at it near term, not, not making any sort of forecast or anything like that, but last year where we stood market was very nervous, s and p around the 200 week moving average finally started bottoming out. 00:29:11 [Speaker Changed] I mean, I think they do.