Forecasting Math Treasury 
Barry Ritholtz
MARCH 18, 2025
This is as true for professionals as it is for amateurs; it’s also true in music, film, sports, television, and economic and market forecasting. Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. Bad Numbers : 4. Index (mostly).
The Big Picture
JULY 15, 2025
Obviously math, there’s a ton of symbolic logic wherever you look, that classic syllogism, right? And our challenge as investors is to find indicators that will allow us to effectively forecast that profit cycle. Absolutely. Here’s the fact pattern, here’s the applicable Absolutely. And, and I find that fascinating.
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Barry Ritholtz
MARCH 17, 2025
They’ve made forecasts, they’ve made predictions about what will and won’t happen, and none of it’s come true. And he’s this old British guy who was, you know, quite famous in England as a policy advisor and an economic forecaster. Wasn’t the Excel spreadsheet error, which changed their math.
The Big Picture
JUNE 16, 2025
Yeah, you have to, you know, the conceit of finance is that basically the math is all there is to it. So you mentioned half math, half Shakespeare. Let’s talk about the math side. Ivanka said, oh no, you don’t have to be able to do math to do real estate 00:20:13 [Speaker Changed] Or investing for that math.
Barry Ritholtz
AUGUST 12, 2024
So when I see a chart like this two things come to mind the first is that looking at crisis peaks — GFC and Covid-19 — is inherently problematic; you are taking outliers that come along once every 15-20 years as opposed to the ordinary treasury issuances. Do we simply ignore the growth in the size of the economy and the U.S.
Barry Ritholtz
NOVEMBER 15, 2022
So whether you’re trying to get managed futures from an active manager or, you know, two months Treasuries, T bills, like the whole spectrum is now available in lose to 3,000 ETFs we are trading here in the U.S. NADIG: Well, I mean, there’s like TLT, with the big Treasury funds, LQD and HYG. It’s how math works.
Barry Ritholtz
AUGUST 29, 2023
And when you think about translating the S&P 500 PE to an implied equity risk premium by looking at the 10 year treasury yield, you’re 200 basis points below what it’s been for the last 10 years. DAVIS: Yes, we try not to be in the short-term forecasting game. DAVIS: So on the bond side, we have both.
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