This site uses cookies to improve your experience. To help us insure we adhere to various privacy regulations, please select your country/region of residence. If you do not select a country, we will assume you are from the United States. Select your Cookie Settings or view our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use.
Cookie Settings
Cookies and similar technologies are used on this website for proper function of the website, for tracking performance analytics and for marketing purposes. We and some of our third-party providers may use cookie data for various purposes. Please review the cookie settings below and choose your preference.
Used for the proper function of the website
Used for monitoring website traffic and interactions
Cookie Settings
Cookies and similar technologies are used on this website for proper function of the website, for tracking performance analytics and for marketing purposes. We and some of our third-party providers may use cookie data for various purposes. Please review the cookie settings below and choose your preference.
Strictly Necessary: Used for the proper function of the website
Performance/Analytics: Used for monitoring website traffic and interactions
This is as true for professionals as it is for amateurs; it’s also true in music, film, sports, television, and economic and market forecasting. Economic Innumeracy : Some individuals experience math anxiety, but it only takes a bit of insight to navigate the many ways numbers can mislead us. Bad Numbers : 4.
Compounding, Denominator Blindness, Survivorship Bias all affect our abilities to make good decisions about the future when even basic math is involved. You write, Forecasts of a recession arriving during the next four years are just a waste of print and pixels. What are some examples of bad numbers?
Obviously math, there’s a ton of symbolic logic wherever you look, that classic syllogism, right? And then number three is gonna be sentiment and valuation. Now, sometimes people say sentiment and valuation, why are they together? So, so valuation is going to reflect sentiment. The third is sentiment and valuation.
Sander Gerber : Well, actually I was good at math. Because if you don’t include every single data point, then in the matrix math you have a divide by zero issue. The valuation of risk versus 00:46:33 [Speaker Changed] Reward 00:46:34 [Speaker Changed] Is something that I think a machine cannot do in the same way that human can.
This large and growing data set provides the foundation for proprietary algorithms that we use throughout our business, including those that predict purchase behavior, forecast demand, optimize inventory and enable us to design new apparel. “We also gather extensive merchandise data, such as inseam, pocket shape, silhouette and fit.
I’d say management consulting is any of the other thing that least at that time was the other career trajectory, just my personality, more of a math oriented introvert. You really like the long time where you have to hold to make up that valuation whole is so long that you just really shouldn’t be involved. In 2000, right.
DAVIS: Where international equities, because of valuations, probably 7% to 7.5%. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk about that, because that gap in valuation has persisted for a long time. How durable is that shift, given how large that gap has gotten in valuation between US stocks and the rest of the developed world?
Now, we’re shifting to more international places like China, Europe, et cetera, that are really growing, and that valuations are cheaper. You don’t know where, and you know, their forecast — RITHOLTZ: That goes back to your sense that you need the ability to surprise when necessary. RITHOLTZ: Right. RIEDER: Totally.
And we’ve automated the, the appraisal process for valuation, both intrinsic value, meaning like, where would we pay it, where would we buy it, and where is the fair market price that asset from that level, from price and from consumer behavior now. Now it’s dangerous to forecast that far in the future because behavior can change.
I’m kind of in intrigued by the idea of philosophy and math. So I found myself getting kind of bored with my math problem sets, and then I could shift to philosophy and then go back and forth. When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is gonna happen. What was the career plan? That’s right.
But plenty of valuation measures, it has no applicability for price-to-sales. ASNESS: Well, first of all, I’m going to somewhat disappoint you saying we do not take very big bets on views like timing asset classes based on valuation. But we don’t trade on a 10-year forecast. But imagine you have a forecast.
Jeffrey Sherman : Well, what it was was, so I, as I said, with applications, there’s many applications of math, and the usually obvious one is physics. Barry Ritholtz : It seems that some people are math people and some people are not. The, the math came easier. And I really hated physics, really. It’s so true.
Price with Discipline – Not Emotion Valuation is where many deals derail. Dont be bullied into accepting hockey-stick forecasts or synergy projections based on gut feel. You stay grounded in the math. And its your responsibility to ensure its thorough enough to support a go/no-go decision with confidence.
And I, and I really like the application of math and statistics and computer science to markets. You learn the math that can help you with, with market making operations. It’s just not smart on a math basis to do that. So I sell my stocks to make room for gold and it doesn’t, turns out my forecast is wrong.
We organize all of the trending information in your field so you don't have to. Join 39,000+ users and stay up to date on the latest articles your peers are reading.
You know about us, now we want to get to know you!
Let's personalize your content
Let's get even more personalized
We recognize your account from another site in our network, please click 'Send Email' below to continue with verifying your account and setting a password.
Let's personalize your content