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What is a hurdlerate for a business? In this post, I will start by looking at the role that hurdlerates play in running a business, with the consequences of setting them too high or too low, and then look at the fundamentals that should cause hurdlerates to vary across companies. What is a hurdlerate?
I am in the third week of the corporate finance class that I teach at NYU Stern, and my students have been lulled into a false sense of complacency about what's coming, since I have not used a single metric or number in my class yet.
In my last three posts, I looked at the macro (equity risk premiums, default spreads, risk free rates) and micro (company risk measures) that feed into the expected returns we demand on investments, and argued that these expected returns become hurdlerates for businesses, in the form of costs of equity and capital.
Mean reversion : I am not a knee-jerk believer in mean reversion, but the tendency for numbers to move back towards averages is a strong one. Counter made-up numbers : It remains true that people (analysts, market experts, politicians) often make assertions based upon either incomplete or flawed data, or no data at all.
The numbers that I computed opened my eyes to how much perspective on the high, low, and typical values, i.e., the distribution of margins, helped in valuing the company, and how little information there was available, at least at that time, on this dimension. Aggregate operating numbers 3. Insider, CEO & Institutional holdings 2.
If you are concerned that you are going to be hit with a sales pitch for that book, far from it! With more mature companies, as investment opportunities become scarcer, at least relative to available capital, the focus not surprisingly shifts to financing mix, with a lower hurdlerate being the pay off.
Mean reversion : I am not a knee-jerk believer in mean reversion, but the tendency for numbers to move back towards averages is a strong one. Counter made-up numbers : It remains true that people (analysts, market experts, politicians) often make assertions based upon either incomplete or flawed data, or no data at all.
Starting with gross margins, and computing the number for all non-financial service firms, we report the distribution of gross margins across publicly traded companies at the start of 2023, again based upon gross income and sales in the most recent twelve months: While the median gross margin across all publicly traded global firms is about 30%.,
In closing, I also want to dispense with the notion that data is objective and that numbers-focused people have no bias. Finally, it is worth noting that, notwithstanding the travails of last year, the number of firms in the data universe increased from 44,394 firms at the start of 2020 to 46,579 firms, a 4.9%
Both oil and copper dropped during the peak crisis weeks (February 14 through March 23, 2020), but while copper not only recouped its losses and was up almost 26% over the course of the year, oil remains more than 20% below the start-of-the-year numbers. Data Update 4 for 2021: The HurdleRate Question.
” look at the Monte Carlo simulations, look at what is the hurdlerate. The plan update process for you, it’s not just that the numbers move because a year has gone by and the markets did what they did and you saved what you saved, you withdrew whatever you were going to withdraw. Cean: We actually use J.P.
So it’s got this math angle where it, you know, it’s all numbers, but then there’s this behavioral angle and psychological angle where, you know, it’s, it’s kind of a fun problem to tackle. It’s kind of a silly number, but people are going to think you’re smart or dumb based on that number.
And so we, we get this contract written and I go off to grad school assuming I would go work at a big bank doing sales and trading in some quant role. Honest back testing, really looking at the numbers versus exaggerating returns and, and making up the claim that something’s live when it’s not. So that’s number one.
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