Musings on Markets

NOVEMBER 4, 2022

In the third and final post, I will argue that Facebook's troubles with the market have as much to do with a failure of narrative, as they are about disappointing numbers, and present a template for what the company needs to do, to reclaim the high ground.

Advertising 98

Advertising Profit and Loss Investments Marketing 98

Barry Ritholtz

OCTOBER 24, 2022

So there are a number of us heading in out of college into the BLS. So I leave the Bureau of Labor Statistics and I move into economic consulting. And how do we think about them from a valuation perspective? You said earlier, valuations were historically high both stocks and bonds late 2021, right about now, what are we?

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Investments Valuation Benchmarking Marketing 52

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 29, 2023

And it worked out and had multiple job offers coming out of school from a number of different insurance companies. I had a number of relationships that I built up and had another job lined up in New York City. So a variety of risk meetings, a variety of economic meetings. I thought that was a really interesting story.

Investments 52

Investments Benchmarking Valuation Construction 52

Barry Ritholtz

JULY 24, 2023

The fact that you’ve got declining risk appetite, declines are prolonged, deep and valuations mean revert. The second, and what’s interesting about that period, is the fact that valuations actually peaked in 1961. MIAN: Valuations are ebb and flow. But number two is from a demographic standpoint.

Construction 52

Construction Marketing Valuation Investments 52

Barry Ritholtz

DECEMBER 19, 2023

They run long short across each of these, and they’ve put up some pretty impressive numbers over the past couple of years. And when they look at a sector, they want to be long, the very best stocks at the best valuations they can, and short the worst stocks at the worst valuations. It’s beta neutral, market neutral.

Healthcare 61

Healthcare Investments Construction Concentration 61

Barry Ritholtz

OCTOBER 17, 2023

A degree in mathematics from Oxford, a doctorate in mathematical epidemiology and economics from Cambridge. Graham Foster] : 00:02:54 That was a number, that was number theory, pure number theory. And whether it’s all numbers or even numbers. [Barry Ritholtz] : So you have a fascinating background.

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Barry Ritholtz

FEBRUARY 13, 2023

And like I say, that’s part of why it’s translated to a number of people coming to BlackRock and be with me today. RIEDER: So I had known Larry Fink and Rob Caputo, our CEO and president, for a number of years. And you know, it’s been an honor to have a number of awards to it. So yeah, man, that was the idea.

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Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Investments Marketing Education 57

Barry Ritholtz

DECEMBER 14, 2022

MCCARTHY: I’d back up actually a little bit further in thinking about how did I get there, because I don’t think it was very obvious actually that I would come out of Yale with an ethics, politics and economics degree — RITHOLTZ: Perfect really, right? But that is a different kind of approach to portfolio construction.

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Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A) Investments Construction Concentration 61

Barry Ritholtz

SEPTEMBER 5, 2023

And I literally put the entire Schedule A, which is the pricing square footage unit numbers in a Hewlett Packard 41B using bit mapping. And we’d sort of turn that into a valuation business. Everybody knew the number but the appraiser. What are the, you know, I’d literally have it in my handheld. Just keep it fair.

Sales 52

Sales Marketing Numbers Construction 52

Barry Ritholtz

SEPTEMBER 26, 2023

Ritholtz ] 00:09:37 I recall reading, and I know you can’t say this, but I recall reading that fund return something like 19% a year, some just astounding number. And if they don’t, we’re happy to own them at the valuation that we are creating that company act. It’s still in the double digits.

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Investments Economics Banking Construction 52

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 15, 2023

Or at least the top, pick a number, 30, 40%. I don’t remember the number. ” 29, 87, 74, just pick any 50 plus percent number and certainly 2000 and ’08, ’09, a major index gets cut in half. So you’re talking about an average of a large number. What’s the valuation? Less, 20, 30%?

Benchmarking 52

Benchmarking Investments Marketing Treasury 52

Barry Ritholtz

JUNE 13, 2023

And so we go back to the basics of what our job should be, risk underwriting, risk assessment, asset prices are different from asset valuation. I mean the valuation is the future cash flow discounted at a risk-free rate plus a risk premium. RITHOLTZ: So let’s talk a little bit about valuations relative to risk and reward.

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Investments Banking Entertainment Valuation 57

Barry Ritholtz

MARCH 26, 2024

You get a BA in economics and poli sci from the University of Delaware. And it had to do with the discipline of the models that he used and how he segmented economic liquidity, investor liquidity, and then technicals and and breath conditions and understood how they melded together. What was the original career plan?

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Investments Marketing Concentration Economics 57

Barry Ritholtz

AUGUST 16, 2022

And if you’re able to do that in a diverse number of markets and asset classes, while managing risk in the markets that aren’t trending, you know, that’s in general how trend following works. And so that’s a really fertile, constructive environment for us to try and generate returns. TROPIN: Exactly.

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Profit and Loss Foreign Exchange Valuation Investments 118

Barry Ritholtz

MARCH 14, 2023

You get a BA in Economics from Hamilton College. So what we did was we figured out the economic rationale, the macroeconomic influences about why growth and value work at any point in time. Everybody wants to sell a company when they get a good valuation. So up 18 or 19 percent for the year, you see those spectacular numbers.

Quantitative Analysis 61

Quantitative Analysis Investments Valuation Marketing 61

Barry Ritholtz

MARCH 12, 2024

So we could construct trades that had very, very low premiums to sell this volatility to, to basically join the consumer on their side of the trade, which is in essence buying insurance on, on the bonds that were exposed to these great risk. So we built, we did that for a lot of the markets. Do you, do you still have any?

Profit and Loss 57

Profit and Loss Investments Marketing Securities 57

Barry Ritholtz

DECEMBER 20, 2022

It’s just a fascinating conversation about looking at the world from both bottoms up and top-down, as well as thinking about what valuations are like, how likely are macro events, the impact you’re getting not just the return on capital, but as famously said in fixed income, a return of your capital. This conversation is over.

Restructuring 61

Restructuring Investments Marketing Banking 61

Barry Ritholtz

FEBRUARY 12, 2024

And since that happened, I don’t know, about four or five years ago, the fund has been putting up great numbers, outperforming doing really, really well. And at that point, I decided what I really wanted to do was be a PhD in economics. And we held it for, I don’t know, for a number of years.

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